PAKISTAN: Military action against Islamists may be inevitable

Stock Photo: Busy Pakistani Market

Stock Photo: thearg/john jackson

Pakistani state TV has reported a series of bomb blasts near the offices of government security agencies in the town of Sukkur have killed four people and wounded thirty others. Interior Ministry spokesman Omar Hamid Khan said the Inter-Services Itelligence agency’s regional offices were the primarly target. With the impending withdrawl of NATO/ISAF forces from Afghanistan, the United States is calling on Pakistan to clamp down on Islamic militants as unmanned drone strikes continue and the last NATO oil convoys make their  way from Pakistan to Afghanistan. Pakistani militants have a long history of targeting NATO oil tankers bound for Afganistan, with another two fuel tankers being destroyed by Islamist gunmen in late June.

According to analysts and government insiders, Pakistan’s newly elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, after promising to engage Islamists in productive dialogue during his camplaign, may now be forced to bend to the will of Pakistan’s powerful military, and US foreign policy interests. Pakistan’s military views the Pakistani Taliban as an insurgent force, and while it may sympathize with the Afghan Taliban of whom many in the military view as freedom fighters, they are under intense pressure from the US to stop attacks originating and supported from Pakistan’s side of the border. Sharif, who was prime minister twice previously, was ousted in 1999 by a military lead coup.

Recent bombings in Lahore and Karachi have rocked the newly minted administration, killing President Asif Ali Zardari’s security chief, among others.

A report leaked to al-Jazeera earlier this month as part of a commission investigating the US special forces mission into Pakistan which killed Osama bin Laden has also proved a major embarrassment to both Pakistan’s military and government. While on one hand it accused the US of committing a ‘criminal act of murder’, the 336-page document also contained statements from many in the military who consider the elected government completely inept in dealing with security threats, and described an ‘understanding’ the military had concerning the use of American drone aircraft to attack Pakistani based Islamist militants.

External links: http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/07/23/pakistan-security-sharif-idINDEE96M0G220130723

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SOMALIA – Al Shabaab coup d’etat: senior leaders killed, fled, and in custody

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys

Government soldiers in Adado lead Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys onto a plane bound for Mogadishu. REUTERS

A man once considered a spiritual leader for Somali Islamist group Al Shabaab, and considered by the US to be one of the most dangerous terrorists alive, is now in the custody of the newly constituted Somali central government.

“Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is in good health and is currently in the custody of the Somali Federal Government,” Interior and National Security Minister Abdikarim Hussein Guled announced on July 3rd. After protests in the capital city over fears he might be extradited to the US, Gulded assured the public, “Sheikh Aweys will not be transferred over to any foreign government and we call upon the Mogadishu public to calm down”.

The Minister also apologized for the circumstances in which Aweys was taken into custody on June 29th. The Sheikh had flown into Mogadishu from Adado with a group of parliamentarians, elders, and warlords. Upon his arrival, Aweys and his entourage were allegedly ‘beaten up and arrested’. All but Aweys were later released. Aweys had originally traveled to Mogadishu on a promise of amnesty from the government.

Aweys’ capture comes after the violent purging of senior Al Shabaab leadership by the Islamists’ emir, Ahmed Abdi Godane, aka Abu Zubeir. In the past few weeks Godane has stepped up attacks against his rivals within Al Shabaab as well as government forces in the capital, Mogadishu.

Many among the Islamists’ upper echelon have been critical of Godane’s command, particularly with regard to his distrust of foreign Jihandists. In May, foreign Jihadist Ibrahim Al-Afghani wrote an open letter to Al-Quaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri accussing Godane of imprisoning and murdering foreign fighters who’s views were not aligned with his own. In the weeks following that letter many Al-Qaeda linked websites have been critical of the state of Jihad in Somali.  Godane’s loyalists replied via Twitter, calling those disloyal and critical of his leadership to be ‘cowards’.

Around June 19th forces loyal to Godane retaliated on dis-affectionate Al Shabaab forces in Barawe, a costal town in southern Somalia controlled by the Islamists. Civilians continue to report heavy fighting in that area. Godane’s forces also reportedly assassinated senior Al Shabaab members including Ibrahim Afghani, co-founder of Al Shabaab, and Moallim Burhan. Perhaps the most outspoken opponent of Godane, American-born Jihadist Omar Hammami (now known as Abu Mansour al-Amriki) is rumored to have been killed after a previous attempt to assassinate him in April failed. Mukhtar Robow, the Islamists’ former spokesman, is believed to have fled to his the Rahanweyn clan homeland in the Bay and Bakol region. Analysts say Robow’s withdraw poses serious implications as the majority of Al Shabaab’s regular forces are members of the Rahanweyn clan, and harbor loyalties to Robow.

Aweys and his faction joined Al Shabaab in 2009, and although he has been considered a terrorist by the United States since shortly after the September 11th attacks in New York and Washigton DC, he is considered to be much lower on the Al Shabaab totem pole than such figures as Mukhtar Robow, and the late Ibrahim Afghani.

With reporting from Hassan M. Abukar of the SomaliLand Sun, BBC, AllAfrica, and Doctor Mohammed Gilao of Dejinta Beesha.

External Links:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-23120468
http://allafrica.com/stories/201306260104.html
http://allafrica.com/stories/201307030075.html
http://somalilandsun.com/index.php/in-depth/3248-somalia-the-godane-coup-and-the-unravelling-of-al-shabaab-analysis